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人工智能投资指南

HAL在《2001太空漫游》中的表现，《银翼杀手》中的复制人，《终结者》和《西部世界》中的AI。这些科幻电影似乎特别擅长挖掘人类的焦虑。知道人类可以互相残杀已经够糟糕的了，更不用说机器可能变得有意识并产生恶意的想法了。

这些电影有些已经有几十年历史，在它们上映时，代表着一个遥远的反乌托邦未来。然而，AI，即计算机逼真地复制人类行为和理解能力的能力，已经成为我们日常生活中不可或缺的一部分，很多人甚至没有意识到它的存在。AI驱动着我们信任的语音助手，如Siri和Alexa，并在Netflix和Spotify上推荐我们可能喜欢的电影和歌曲。它甚至在帮助许多人寻找真爱，通过为约会应用提供算法支持。

然而，尽管AI在我们生活的许多方面已经成为“家居用品”，但在股票市场投资方面，它仍然被视为“新手”。接下来我们将探讨AI如何影响市场，它在我们的自由裁量投资组合中的地位，以及为什么我们的投资团队相信它可能带来成功的机会。

我应该投资人工智能吗？

对投资者来说，AI代表着机遇和风险。某些科技公司将从中受益。AI需要强大的处理能力来进行分析和响应，因此像NVIDIA这样的公司，它们制造必要的数据芯片，已经被誉为“赢家”，因为它们能够满足需求。NVIDIA的新H100数据中心芯片由800亿个晶体管组成，在处理数据、文本、语音和图像的能力上有了巨大的飞跃。目前，它远远超过了PC时代的王者Intel的竞争芯片。大型数据中心公司如微软、亚马逊和谷歌需要更快的计算机处理器来挖掘其客户的潜力，因此对合适公司的成功仍有更多空间。

另一位“赢家”，科技巨头微软，推出了一款名为“Copilot”的AI驱动工具，它嵌入了Word和Excel等应用中。这个工具承诺可以“释放创造力，提升生产力，提高技能”。虽然一些人仍然对微软以前的生产力工具——那位令人印象深刻的热情的回形针Clippy——记忆犹新，但这似乎是AI对企业的主要卖点：通过帮助用户成为超级人类来提高生产力。这个AI领域可以帮助科学家更快地发现新药物治疗方法，帮助医生更准确地诊断疾病。

未来的机遇可能会出现在拥有自己专有数据集的公司中，如通过更好的贷款决策来获益的信用机构，以及拥有法律数据库的公司为客户提供更快更好的案件处理。

然而，也会有“输家”。高盛的一份报告指出，制造业、采矿业和农业等行业基本不受影响，但许多白领工作可能会受到影响，许多涉及信息处理、计算机编程和内容生成的工作和公司最终可能被数字自动化取代。它还可能扰乱现有巨头——谷歌搜索结果仅显示可能有用的链接；而ChatGPT则提供答案。

投资者应该怎么做呢？

近年来，股票市场上出现了许多科技潮流，从加密货币到元宇宙，但这感觉更像是90年代中期，当互联网作为一项技术进入大众意识时，大家很快意识到它将对社会、经济和市场产生深远影响。它让一些人赚得盆满钵满，也让一些人一贫如洗。

1995年夏天，世界上最流行的浏览器Netscape的上市引发了市场上的泡沫，这个泡沫直到2000年才开始破裂。然而，投资者应警惕这种炒作。那时，主导市场的是搜索引擎Alta Vista，社交媒体Friendster和Myspace，以及软件公司Netscape——这些名字现在都已被历史遗忘，被谷歌、亚马逊和Facebook等准垄断企业取而代之。进入新技术领域并不总是最重要的：公司的策略、收益和估值才是最终的关键。

一些投资者现在担心错过下一个亚马逊或谷歌的潜在机会。撰写本文时，今年美国股市的涨幅几乎完全归因于微软、NVIDIA和少数拥有AI故事的大型科技公司的股价上涨，以及其他试图搭上这班车的公司：FactSet报告称，在最近一轮的季度收益报告中，标普500指数中有110家公司提到了AI。

AI投资机会

总的来说，我们正处在一项可能像印刷术或互联网一样塑造我们未来的技术的起点。因此，也许需要谨慎对待——尤其是因为印刷术曾引发了持续数百年的宗教战争，而大多数互联网投资都失败了。

然而，处于变革的边缘令人兴奋。与其试图在早期阶段挑选赢家，更明智的策略似乎是考虑投资哪些AI公司。如果你想获得曝光，投资于一个多元化的基金，并尽量避免那些被颠覆的公司。我们的投资经理能够很好地指导客户进入这个不断变化的领域。想了解更多关于如何通过均衡、多元化的投资组合来接触AI的信息，请联系您的投资经理，或通过以下方式联系我们，进行无义务咨询。

*《人工智能对经济增长的潜在重大影响》（Briggs/Kodnani），高盛经济研究，2023年3月。

希望这篇文章能帮助你更好地理解人工智能投资的潜力和风险。如果你有任何问题或需要进一步的建议，请随时联系我。

 

下一步？

我是宇思，和你一起看世界。

微信：bigwusister / WhatsApp：90088276

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