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新加坡最近太热了，专家预计4月和5月会更热，热相关疾病风险增加

专家表示，接下来的两个月通常是一年中最炎热的时段，由于2023年下半年影响新加坡的厄尔尼诺现象的持续影响，温度可能会进一步上升。
厄尔尼诺是一种自然气候现象，由于热带太平洋海温和海洋表面风向的变化，会给东南亚带来更加炎热、干燥的天气。
新加坡国家环境局气象服务处（MSS）在回应查询时表示，厄尔尼诺条件正在减弱，预计将在4月或5月左右逐渐消退。
但据《海峡时报》报道，专家表示，由于热量需要一定时间从海面转移到大气中，厄尔尼诺仍可能在未来几个月中以高于平均水平的温度形式出现。
他们补充说，这种厄尔尼诺的持续影响预计将与新加坡一年中传统上热的月份重叠。
根据MSS的记录，五月是一年中最炎热的月份，平均每天气温为摄氏28.6度。四月的平均每日气温为摄氏28.2度，而六月的平均气温为摄氏28.5度。
新加坡国立大学地理系城市气候学教授Matthias Roth表示：“考虑到厄尔尼诺事件在达到顶峰后仍会继续产生热量，未来几个月可能会经历高于平均水平的温度。”
Roth教授补充说，厄尔尼诺事件通常伴随着气温上升，再加上新加坡已经较高的湿度，将使得四月至六月的户外活动更加不舒适。
加利福尼亚大学圣地亚哥分校斯克里普斯海洋研究所物理海洋学专家谢教授表示同意。他说：“高湿度加上高温可能会导致热应激。”
MSS一位发言人表示，尽管随着温度和湿度的升高，热应激水平往往会上升，但还需要考虑其他因素，如风速和太阳辐射量。
高热应激水平可能导致热相关疾病的风险增加，如中暑、热衰竭和热性抽筋。
厄尔尼诺指的是厄尔尼诺南方涛动（El Nino Southern Oscillation）的热阶段之一，它是影响海洋表面温度和降水模式的世界上最大的自然气候周期之一。
在热带太平洋，风主要是从东向西吹的。这些可预测的风，也就是所谓的贸易风，使温暖的水域集中在海洋大陆周围，助长了雨云的形成，给该地区带来了雨水。
但在厄尔尼诺事件期间，贸易风减弱，西部的温暖水域不再局限于该地区。相反，一股暖水舌现在从西向东延伸。
随着温暖水域向中太平洋和东太平洋移动，雨云随之而来，导致新加坡出现更干燥、更炎热的天气。
在厄尔尼诺事件期间，亦即厄尔尼诺事件的凉爽阶段，相反的情况发生。温暖的水域围绕在东南亚地区，导致更多的降雨。
3月23日，MSS在其年度气候评估报告中表示，2023年是一个厄尔尼诺年，是有记录以来第四热的一年。2023年的平均温度为摄氏28.2度，与2015年和1997年的两个厄尔尼诺年持平。
有记录以来最热的年份是2019年和2016年，平均温度为摄氏28.4度，以及1998年的摄氏28.3度。
MSS当时还警告说，由于厄尔尼诺的持续影响，2024年的温度可能高于2023年。
在2016年和1998年，厄尔尼诺事件约在4月结束。“2016年和（1998年的）5月都比长期平均温度要高，”MSS补充说。
MSS发言人表示，研究表明，该地区近地表气温受厄尔尼诺影响的变化往往滞后几个月。她补充说：“这种滞后的一部分可能来自于太平洋中部和东部海域向大气释放热量，然后影响全球大气环流。”
新加坡南洋理工大学（NTU）亚洲环境学院和李光前医学院的副教授史蒂夫表示，空气温度通常在厄尔尼诺达到最大强度几个月后达到顶峰。
“2024年1月初，观察到厄尔尼诺达到最大强度，史蒂夫教授说。“大气对异常温暖的海表温度的反应，比如厄尔尼诺期间，需要时间，因为热量需要从海表转移到大气中。”
新加坡国立大学的Roth教授表示：“热量实际上是由水有效地储存的，厄尔尼诺事件达到顶峰后，热量继续释放到大气中。”

Important: The information and opinions in this article are for general information purposes only. They should not be relied on as professional financial advice. Readers should seek independent financial advice that is customised to their specific financial objectives, situations & needs. This advertisement or publication has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

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LIU Yiquan Eugene 刘以泉

您好，我是刘以泉，感谢科技让我们相遇！我2010年来到新加坡，毕业于新加坡新加坡南洋理工大学并且拿到博士学位。现在在新加坡最大的独立理财顾问公司做全牌照独立理财顾问。服务过上百个新加坡新移民和国内的朋友，为他们提供全面专业的定制化资产配置服务。

我曾经是一名工程师，在浙江大学获得学位，并在上海的国际公司工作多年。后来，带家人移民到新加坡，并且在新加坡南洋理工大学获得哲学博士学位。通过这一系列的跨国经历，我深刻理解到不同背景下的财务挑战和规划的重要性。

在我转行做理财顾问之前，我一直对理财投资有着浓厚兴趣，并注意到身边很多高学历人群普遍缺乏金融知识，因为这个行业确实存在巨大信息差，这一点对于刚到新加坡的朋友们尤为明显。而且，保险理财的选择成本是非常大的，一旦选错的错，就可能会造成很大损失，因此，我转型成为一名独立理财顾问，致力于帮助新移民的个人和家庭在新加坡做精准配置，不仅给他们一份安心，而且在新加坡实现他们的财务目标。

我的使命是：通过深度的对比和专业的理财建议，为您打造稳固的经济基础，帮助您实现财务自由。

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