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美元走弱，不代表美元霸主地位的终结

“美元要崩了？”，“美元霸权即将瓦解？”，“全球去美化正在进行时？”，近期诸如此类的说法层出不穷，那么今天我们就来聊聊美元。

目前美元面临的问题确实很多：

财政风险和债务膨胀，2025上半年，美元指数已经下跌10%左右。
贸易紧张造成市场情绪波动，让美元吸引力持续下降，部分亚洲货币强劲升值。
美国冻结俄央行3000亿美元储备，造成美元信用危机，迫使多国走上去美元化的道路。种种迹象都在表明，美元在持续走弱。

但事实真的如表面所见，美元将被取代吗？

 

我想说的是，美元的地位短期内依旧很难撼动！

不过有可能会从“绝对主导”到“相对优势”，不排除长期可能会出现货币多极化的趋势。

首先，我们要明确一个核心的观点，短期的汇率波动和货币霸权稳定性并不能直接挂钩。

很多人看到美元一跌再跌，就开始唱衰美元，但实际上美元问题比想象中复杂的得多。一个货币的霸权需要很多核心支柱。

拿美元来说，它背后目前依旧有这些东西支撑：

 

首先是，贸易结算占比。

目前占全球贸易支付占比，美元依旧占40%以上，石油、粮食等大宗商品还是美元定价。

目前沙特虽接受多币种交易，但美元石油体系未根本改变。

有人会觉得，我是不是可以拒绝用美元做结算呢？

当然，你可以拒绝结算，但是人家也有权不跟你做交易。

印度倒卖俄罗斯石油，但是俄罗斯压根不收印度卢比，就是因为印度卢比买不到东西，但是美元可以买到几乎绝大部分的商品。

目前人民币正在逐渐走入国际市场，但占比也只有2%多一点，这还是在贸易支付领域，如果投资支付领域美元更是绝对的霸主。

 

其次是，外汇储备占比。

虽然近年各国都在重新审视对美元的依赖，在增持黄金，但截至2024年底，美元占外汇储备总量依旧高达57.8%。大幅领先其他货币。

 

第三点是，金融交易定价权。

美联储的利率决策直接影响全球资金成本，美国投行在衍生品定价上同样具有垄断地位。
同时，美国还掌握SWIFT系统、CHIPS等美元清算系统的控制权。
比如2022年，美国联合SWIFT将俄罗斯7家主要银行踢出系统，冻结其3000亿美元外汇储备。

第四点是，军事科技以及主流媒体。

不得不承认从军事，到科技再到人才，美国依旧是垄断之态。

军事上有第五舰队护持沙特石油，科技上有芯片制裁，再加上全世界主流媒体控制权，这些是美元依旧能坚挺的硬实力支撑。

以上四点是我列出的支持美元霸权比较核心的支柱，当然也还存在很多其他因素。并且这几点，每点单拎出来都很难支撑货币霸权，必须要互相作用，才能形成体系。

由此可见美元的韧性，绝不是一朝一夕能打破的。

即便想挑战美元，短期内也很难找到替代品。

欧元是有尝试过的，但是欧元区毕竟不是一个国家，齐心协力很难，大家都各怀鬼胎；

美国一方面不断挑拨周边局势，导致周边地区安全都要受到威胁。

另一方面，还在金融制裁压制，包括一直在阻止欧盟建立独立的结算系统。

可以很直接的说，即便美元崩塌，欧元也不一定是最大的受益者，毕竟还有人民币。

人民币比较稳定，国家经济体量也够大，有强大的制造业背书，科技和军事上也在不断追赶。

但是有一点很致命，人民币是受管制的，不能随意进出，压根没有流通性，想要取代美元，第一步就是要有比美元更宽松的货币管制和便利性，目前来看中国很难坐得起这个庄。

总的来说，美元仍将长期主导全球金融体系，短期内没有货币能替代美元，投资者不必过度担心美元前景。

 

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Important: The information and opinions in this article are for general information purposes only. They should not be relied on as professional financial advice. Readers should seek unbiased financial advice that is customised to their specific financial objectives, situations & needs. This advertisement or publication has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

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In compliance with the Personal Data Protection Act, Financial Alliance Pte Ltd (“FAPL”) seek your consent to collect and use your personal data (e.g. name, NRIC, contact numbers, mailing addresses, email addresses and photograph) for the purposes of and in accordance with FAPL’s Data Protection Policy, which can be found on FAPL’s website at https://fa.com.sg/data-protection-policy/.

根据《个人数据保护法》，鑫盟理财私人有限公司征求您的同意向您收集并使用您的个人信息。鑫盟理财将根据公司的个人数据保护政策所阐述的用途使用您的个人资料（例如姓名，证件号码，联系电话，邮寄地址，电邮地址和照片）。 该政策可在本公司网站上查寻，网址为 https://fa.com.sg/data-protection-policy/.

By submitting this form, you are deemed to have read and understood FAPL’s Personal Data Policy.

提交此表格，即表示您已阅读并理解鑫盟理财私人有限公司的个人数据政策