基金中的基金,最佳应对不确定性的工具!听听它对2024 年的投资展望

长期投资成功的关键

让我们从一些残酷的事情开始。

尽管市场在 2023 年底大幅复苏,但过去两年的表现令人失望。虽然存在一些小机会,但大多数核心资产市场和指数自 2022 年初以来已经下跌。

为了帮助应对这一不确定性和波动性时期,我们反思了最近的经验,并考虑是否需要改变当前的资产配置。我们认为,我们不应该根据最近发生的事情做出假设,而应该关注被低估的资产,特别是股票板块,而不是那些表现优异的资产。

这这正是投资组合回报未来成功的关键。 

步入 2024 年,我们在制定客户投资组合中的资产配置时需要考虑一系列因素,同时发现可以增加未来回报的机会。

资产估值仍然有吸引力吗?

最重要的因素始终是估值。当然,考虑当前的经济前景是乐观还是艰难是至关重要的,但这并不像人们为一项资产支付的价格那么重要。事实上,我们甚至可以说,长期投资成功的唯一真正关键是以有吸引力的价格购买合理的投资并长期持有。

对于投资者来说,好消息是,尽管 2023 年最后两个月价格上涨,但许多投资仍然有吸引力,特别是事后看来,2021 年底所提供的价值稀缺。

固定利息资产能否带来正收益?

过去两年向较低估值的转变以及由此带来的预期回报的改善在固定利率市场中最为明显。

尽管 2023 年最终成为固定利率回报出色的一年,但值得注意的是,包括最受关注的美国 10 年期国债在内的许多固定利率投资的收益率接近 2022 年底的水平,并且仍远高于 2021 年底的水平(图 1)。

根据当前收益率和我们对未来几年预期利率的看法,我们对预期回报的预测意味着我们应该:

  • 未来几年政府债券每年约 4%

  • 较高质量投资级别公司债券的利率在 5% 至 6% 之间

  • 在全球债券市场投机性较高的领域(即被认为与评级较高的投资级公司相比信用质量较低且违约风险较高的公司发行的债券),这一比例接近 8%。

如果我们要接受这些适度乐观的预测,我们还必须接受,正如迄今为止这动荡的十年中所发生的那样,将会出现大幅波动,而且我们的预测同时存在上行和下行风险。

基金中的基金,最佳应对不确定性的工具!听听它对2024 年的投资展望 — Engage

图1:2021年12月至2023年12月全球固定利率市场变化 资料来源:CGWM、彭博社

我们还认为,今年经济前景的重大转变将有助于固定利率回报。 2022 年和 2023 年是稳健增长的年份,尤其是美国经济,虽然我们预计今年增长将放缓,但应避免破坏性的衰退。

与此同时,我们认为通胀很可能会继续经历一段降温时期(图 2)。这将使全球央行摆脱对“限制性货币政策”的追求,转而降息(图 3)——在经历 2022 年和 2023 年大部分时间之后,这显然是一个积极的转变。 

基金中的基金,最佳应对不确定性的工具!听听它对2024 年的投资展望 — Engage

图2:美国、英国和欧元区的通胀率走势 资料来源:CGWM、彭博社

消费者价格指数(CPI)根据代表性的一篮子商品和服务衡量消费者价格随时间的总体变化。 CPI 是最广泛使用的通货膨胀指标。

基金中的基金,最佳应对不确定性的工具!听听它对2024 年的投资展望 — Engage

图3:美联储实际和隐含利率变动 资料来源 CGWM、彭博社

联邦基金期货是金融市场合约,投资者可以利用它来观察市场对美联储利率变动概率的推演。这些信息经常被媒体报道,投资者可以利用这些信息做出投资决策。

虽然我们的论点无疑将一路受到考验,并且我们预计波动性将保持在较高水平,但我们相信,这种“金发姑娘”环境,即不太热也不太冷的环境,应该有利于通过债券赚钱。

股市还能激发我们的兴趣吗?

我们认为,股票市场的前景更加复杂,广泛的估值范围将导致不同公司、行业和地区的回报多样化。然而,一个简单的事实是,我们目前正在寻找大量不同的投资机会,且估值具有吸引力,这让我们兴奋不已。

如果这种积极的偏见在一个充满巨大不确定性的时期令人不安,那么我们应该强调,我们并没有自满。未来的一年将在政治和地缘政治方面带来挑战。虽然我们远不相信英国或美国的选举会给经济政策带来根本性的变化,但它们会增加整体的兴奋度。与此同时,不同国家和盟国之间的关系正在恶化,过去几十年全球化主题的逆转肯定会导致经济和市场波动。

为什么我们对客户投资组合的定位和资产配置充满信心?

尽管存在明显的威胁,而且经济结果也可能不如我们所建议的那么好。为了应对这些威胁,我们在可能的情况下以多元化和平衡的方式持有投资组合,并为低迷但不是灾难性的经济环境做好准备。

我们最近重新调整了投资组合,以适应利率方向的变化和通胀水平的持续下降。我们期望从固定收益中获得正回报,并相信在股票市场上以合适的价格存在明显的机会。简而言之,为了引导我们度过这些动荡的时期,我们相信我们拥有一系列估值有吸引力的明智投资,并打算长期持有。


#新加坡公积金 #新加坡CPF #新加坡永久居民 #新加坡公民

#新加坡投资 #海外配置 #新加坡保险 #新加坡理财

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Jolysse邬宇思

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新加坡全牌照理财顾问

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Important: The information and opinions in this article are for general information purposes only. They should not be relied on as professional financial advice. Readers should seek independent financial advice that is customised to their specific financial objectives, situations & needs. This advertisement or publication has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

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JolysseWu 邬宇思

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您好。我是宇思,您也可以叫我Jolysse。

我是一名具有8年财富管理经验的独立理财顾问,金融学&管理学双学士,先后服务过近千个私募客户,个人美股及衍生品投资最高年化收益率达366%。在信息爆炸的时代,为您用中立、专业、挑剔的眼光去选择最合适您的理财方案!

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