新加坡全球资产配置:抓住大趋势

大趋势、大趋势、长期趋势——无论你怎么称呼它们,但如果你想产生巨额回报,理解它们是至关重要的。如果您能够确定哪些行业将从商业和经济的长期大趋势中受益,您将更接近选择最佳投资公司。这些公司将能够实现收益复合增长10 至 20 年内保持高于平均水平。

在本系列文章中,我们将探讨投资者应该了解的一些新兴趋势和既定趋势。

长期趋势与周期性趋势

周期性趋势通常持续一到五年,与商业周期和利率密切相关。长期趋势可以持续数十年,并且是由更大的力量引起的。通常它们是由新技术或与人口、环境或先前政策决定相关的结构性失衡引起的。政策制定者对周期性趋势有一定的控制力,但对长期趋势的控制却很少。换句话说,一旦他们开始,他们往往会继续下去,直到完成自己的任务。

这些只是过去几十年中出现的一些长期趋势:

经济和人口:

从 20 世纪 80 年代初到 2021 年,技术和全球化带来的生产率提高导致通胀下降,从而导致结构性低利率——甚至在量化宽松出现之前也是如此。
量化宽松创造了新的“自由货币”环境,迫使投资者如果想获得任何回报就投资股票。
城市化导致城市不断发展,而小城镇则不断缩小。
中国和东南亚的经济发展创造了拥有可自由支配收入的新中产阶级。

科技与金融:

计算机变得更便宜、功能更强大,使得软件和互联网行业蓬勃发展。
宽带互联网在大多数国家得到普及。 
移动电话和后来的智能手机变得无处不在。 
社交媒体、流媒体视频和数字广告颠覆了媒体行业。
云计算使软件公司能够转向具有经常性收入的订阅模式。
在线交易和 ETF 的出现开启了金融民主化的进程,并扰乱了共同基金行业。

这些趋势导致全球经济和投资格局发生重大变化。其中许多趋势紧密相连并相互强化。一种趋势的每个新阶段都会导致其他趋势的新阶段。

从投资者的角度来看,长期趋势之所以有趣有以下几个原因:

  • 它们比周期性趋势持续的时间要长得多,让公司有时间建立自己的地位,然后实现多年的复合收益。
  • 公司需要资本来发展,这为投资者创造了机会。
  • 研发投资和竞争会降低消费者的价格,从而扩大潜在市场规模。正如我们上周提到的, 第一款手机的售价为 3,995 美元,而印度的一​​款新手机售价为 12 美元。
  • 参与主要趋势的公司通常处于完美的位置,可以转向新市场或向现有市场销售新商品和服务。 我首先想到的是 Nvidia、 Alphabet和 Apple 。
  • 长期趋势与叙事投资紧密结合。您可以围绕公司及其所在行业构建叙述,然后不断更新该叙述。您可以在投资、增加头寸或保持投资之前确定您希望看到的催化剂。 

下一个大趋势

展望未来,我们将把大趋势分为以下几类:

第 1 部分:医疗保健

  • 生命科学
  • 医疗设备
  • 远程医疗
  • 软件

第 2 部分:人口统计和工作

  • 人口老龄化
  • 不断壮大的中产阶级
  • 基础设施投资

第3部分:能源与气候变化

  • 电气化和电动汽车
  • 可再生能源发电
  • 电池存储

第 4 部分:人工智能、数据收集和管理、云 
第 5 部分:网络安全

第 6 部分:自动化 + 机器人技术
涵盖:物联网
其他:教育科技、Metaverse

第 7 部分:货币与金融

  • 金融科技
  • 数字货币
  • 加密货币

第 8 部分:地缘政治与经济

  • 国际关系与去全球化
  • 安全:技术和知识产权、食品、资源、数据
  • 基础设施投资 

这些趋势和主题之间有很多重叠之处。这些主题的融合可能会增加,所有道路似乎都通向人工智能。但重复重叠的不仅仅是人工智能:数据、安全、半导体和能源似乎都与多种趋势交叉。

融合很重要,因为这意味着一家在一个行业立足的公司可能会突然发现自己能够在不同的市场中利用其专业知识。Nvidia 最初是为游戏行业开发 GPU,最终成为至少五个其他行业的主要供应商。

发生还是炒作?

有些趋势确实正在发生,有些则只是新兴的实验,还有一些则更像是炒作。电动汽车和可再生能源现已成为既定趋势。大多数加密货币领域和虚拟宇宙都更具实验性,或者在某些情况下都是炒作。

股价上涨和媒体噪音并不能很好地表明真正的趋势。要了解趋势的真实性,请观察它如何改变一个行业以及现有企业的反应。 

尽早投资新兴趋势意味着更大的潜在上涨空间和更大的风险,因此相应地调整您的头寸规模是有意义的。请记住,如果整个趋势被证明是无用的,那么在一个趋势中进行大量小仓位的多元化不会对你有帮助。 

新的长期趋势往往始于一两个泡沫。看看泡沫破灭后内部人士和风险资本投资者的行为。

最重要的是,从不同的角度尽可能多地了解新行业、技术或新兴主题。从客户、现有企业、内部人士、早期投资者和竞争对手的角度来考虑。尝试找出能够证明趋势具有真正动力的催化剂。

 

与其做一个旁观者,不如深入局中,掌握更多未来。

如果对投资感兴趣,请联系新加坡独立理财顾问Jolysse邬宇思:微信:Yusi_Wo; wa:90088276

Important: The information and opinions in this article are for general information purposes only. They should not be relied on as professional financial advice. Readers should seek independent financial advice that is customised to their specific financial objectives, situations & needs. This advertisement or publication has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

Published By:

JolysseWu 邬宇思

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Hi, I’m Jolysse. Thank you for visiting my website and I’m looking forward to getting to know you personally.

I’m an independent financial consult and strive towards helping my clients and their families to accumulate wealth and helping them grow their investment portfolios.

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In compliance with the Personal Data Protection Act, Financial Alliance Pte Ltd (“FAPL”) seek your consent to collect and use your personal data (e.g. name, NRIC, contact numbers, mailing addresses, email addresses and photograph) for the purposes of and in accordance with FAPL’s Data Protection Policy, which can be found on FAPL’s website at https://fa.com.sg/data-protection-policy/.

根据《个人数据保护法》,鑫盟理财私人有限公司征求您的同意向您收集并使用您的个人信息。鑫盟理财将根据公司的个人数据保护政策所阐述的用途使用您的个人资料(例如姓名,证件号码,联系电话,邮寄地址,电邮地址和照片)。 该政策可在本公司网站上查寻,网址为 https://fa.com.sg/data-protection-policy/.

By submitting this form, you are deemed to have read and understood FAPL’s Personal Data Policy.

提交此表格,即表示您已阅读并理解鑫盟理财私人有限公司的个人数据政策