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新加坡观点 | 标普500回调结束了吗？

2024年5月13日，随着美联储的政策动向和全球供应链的持续紧张，标普500指数（SP500）引起了广泛关注。作为财务顾问，我一直在关注这些市场动态，今天就和大家分享一下我的看法。

标普500：反弹还是回调？

首先，标普500指数最近已经有了显著的反弹。从之前的4950-5000点的支撑区域回升，已经回吐了大约6%。但我们要注意的是，5200-5300点区域仍然是一个重要的阻力点。如果标普500无法突破这个区域，我们可能会看到市场出现反转，进入一个更长的盘整阶段，甚至可能会看到更低的低点，目标在4800点左右。

尽管近期可能会有更多的波动，但从中期和长期来看，我对标普500的前景依然持建设性态度。特别是那些在未来几年有望表现良好的高质量公司，应该会有更多的收益。

利率前景和通胀数据

美联储未来的利率政策也是我们需要关注的一个重要因素。目前来看，美联储在9月FOMC会议或更早会议上降息的可能性约为62%。虽然比一个月前的76%略低，但未来几周降息的可能性可能会增加。特别是如果通胀数据低于预期，可能会促使美联储采取更温和的利率政策。

未来的消费者物价指数（CPI）和其他通胀数据也可能好于预期。油价相对低迷，高利率的环境可能会导致经济放缓，从而带来更低的通胀数据。这对标普500和整体股市来说都是一个积极的信号。

企业盈利和估值

最近的财报季我们看到了不少积极的盈利报告，包括苹果（AAPL）和高通（QCOM）等公司。总体上，约70-80%的公司表现达到了或超过了市场预期。未来几天，英伟达（NVDA）、帕洛阿尔托网络（PANW）和沃尔玛（WMT）等关键公司也将发布财报，预计会继续看到好于预期的盈利。

从估值的角度来看，标普500的远期市盈率约为21-20，意味着未来每股收益将大幅增长。纳斯达克100指数的市盈率低于罗素2000指数的26和24，表明科技股和中小型股在目前价格较为便宜。这些行业提供了增长潜力，随着利率下降和经济增长改善，估值和股价在未来几年可能会大幅走高。

总结

总体来说，虽然近期标普500可能会面临一些波动，但中长期来看，前景依然光明。预期年底标普500的目标范围保持在5700-6000点。特别是与人工智能相关的市场领先细分领域，可能在未来1-2年内（甚至更长时间）表现优于大盘。

作为你的财务顾问，我建议关注这些高质量公司的投资机会，并做好应对市场波动的准备。我们一起期待股市在下半年的稳步上升！

希望这篇文章对你有所帮助！如果你有任何问题或需要进一步的建议，请随时联系我哦！

 

#指数保险 #财务规划 #保险策略 #财富管理 #智慧理财 #财务未来

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根据《个人数据保护法》，鑫盟理财私人有限公司征求您的同意向您收集并使用您的个人信息。鑫盟理财将根据公司的个人数据保护政策所阐述的用途使用您的个人资料（例如姓名，证件号码，联系电话，邮寄地址，电邮地址和照片）。 该政策可在本公司网站上查寻，网址为 https://fa.com.sg/data-protection-policy/.

By submitting this form, you are deemed to have read and understood FAPL’s Personal Data Policy.

提交此表格，即表示您已阅读并理解鑫盟理财私人有限公司的个人数据政策