新加坡IUL详解(二):新加坡IUL在被保人生前断保的可能性有多高?

这篇文章我们来专门聊一聊IUL断保的问题。

关于这方面的讨论目前大多分为两个极端。推崇者要么完全不提这回事,要么以“断保的可能性极低”一语带过。反对者则会抓住这一点不放,想以此把IUL一棍子打死。

其实任何事情都不是非黑即白,而是存在一个“度”的问题。真正重要的问题是,IUL保单在被保人生前断保的可能性到底有多高,与它在其他方面的优点相比,这个风险值不值得?

这里将讨论限定在“被保人生前”,是因为IUL最主要的作用,就是在被保人去世时让受益人获得一笔身故赔偿。只要去世前保单没有断保,保险公司就会正常进行赔付。在本文中,我会提供一些数据和计算,帮助大家有一个更准确的评估。

首先,在每一份IUL计划书上都会提供两种情形的演示。一种是按照过往实际的平均派息率,以及正常的风险费率。假设我们不去做任何特殊的调整,在这种情况下,保单终身不会断保,并且到被保人100岁的时候,保单价值将与保额持平。

另一种演示是假设指数每年的派息率都是0%,并且保险公司按照合同里允许的最高风险费率扣费。我们还是以M公司的保单举例,按40岁不吸烟男士,保额300万美金,每年保费大约7.4万,交5年。在最极端的情况下,保单的现金价值会在第34年,也就是被保人74岁的时候归零,保单断保。

新加坡IUL详解(二):新加坡IUL在被保人生前断保的可能性有多高? — Engage

之所以说这是最极端的情况,因为需要标普500指数连续34年完全不涨或者一直下跌。美国历史上最严重的一次经济衰退是上世纪三十年代的大萧条,股市连续亏损了4年。在标普500指数问世到2023年的中间67年里,有48年是正增长。

另一方面,我认为保险公司调高风险费率的可能性也比较低,因为人均寿命会越来越长,保险公司承担的理赔风险也应该是越来越低。

接下来的问题是,虽然最极端的情况基本不可能发生,但是如果未来标普500指数的派息长期低于6.10%的历史平均值,IUL是否也会断保?

如果我们做一个实验,把标普500换成上X指数,从1991年上X指数面世开始算,套用9%和0%的限制,可以算出至今的年均派息率应该是4.35%。

新加坡IUL详解(二):新加坡IUL在被保人生前断保的可能性有多高? — Engage

我们用前面同样的例子进行测算,每年保费还是7.4万,指数派息率从6.10%下调,每降0.25%为一档,一直到4.35%,算出来的结果如图。

新加坡IUL详解(二):新加坡IUL在被保人生前断保的可能性有多高? — Engage

我们可以看到,如果未来长期的指数派息率降到5.60%,保单在被保人96岁的时候会发生断保。派息率越低,断保年龄越提前。如果派息率降到4.35%,保单在85岁就会断保。作为参考,新加坡居民2022年的出生时预期寿命为83岁,中国内地2021年是78.2岁。

其实除了依赖指数自身的表现,我们也可以主动通过其他方式来降低生前断保的可能性。

第一种方式是在投保时多交保费。还是用前面的例子,按照4.35%的悲观假设,下图显示的是多交不同比例的保费对断保年龄的影响。

新加坡IUL详解(二):新加坡IUL在被保人生前断保的可能性有多高? — Engage

即便多交保费会降低保单的人寿杠杆,但是相比其它类型的终身寿险保单,这里的人寿杠杆仍然具有优势。如果多交保费的情况下,指数收益仍然维持了过往平均的6.10%,保单价值就会获得明显更快的增长。

新加坡IUL详解(二):新加坡IUL在被保人生前断保的可能性有多高? — Engage

比如按照上图的演示,正常保费情况下,保单的内部收益率IRR最高只有百分之3点几。如果多交50%的保费,保单价值的增长和IRR明显都会高很多。

第二种方式是中途向保单充值。用同样4.35%来计算,原本在85岁会发生断保。假设客户交完前5年的保费以后,第6至10年每年再往里充值2万美金,那么断保年龄就可以延后到92岁。

第三种方式是中途降低保额,因为保险公司承担的风险变小了,扣费就会变少,保单能够延续的时间自然就能拉长。

无论采用哪种方式,这里想要表达的是,即便指数收益明显低于预期,仍然有不同的方法可以保护IUL保单不在生前断保。

而且我们不应该等到快要断保了才有所行动,正确的做法是在保单生效后,适当地关注每年实际的派息金额,如果连续好几年都低于原本的预期,就应该提早介入,这样效果也会事半功倍。

退一步讲,如果看完前面的分析,我们仍然认为IUL生前断保的风险超出了我们可以接受的范围,也可以通过其他保单来达成同样的目的。这里我列出了新加坡市场上可以提供终身人寿保障的各个保单类型。

新加坡IUL详解(二):新加坡IUL在被保人生前断保的可能性有多高? — Engage

其中风险最小的应该是保到99岁的定期寿险。保同样的保额,前期的保费投入也最低。它的缺点是没有现金价值,中途取消保单的话,保费就全部损失了。

然后从左至右,保单的不确定性依次提高,但是需要投入的保费也相应减少。最后一种投连型终身寿险,同样保额的保费投入甚至低于IUL,计划书上演示的数字也更好看,不过这类保单不设保底收益,受基金表现的影响太大,断保的风险我认为也过高,所以不推荐。

在这些选项里面,我不会说IUL是最好的,因为每个人的需求和看问题的视角不同,得出的结论自然也不一样。没有任何一款产品能在每个方面都领先,但是在我看来,IUL是将各个方面平衡地比较好的一种选择。

Important: The information and opinions in this article are for general information purposes only. They should not be relied on as professional financial advice. Readers should seek independent financial advice that is customised to their specific financial objectives, situations & needs. This advertisement or publication has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

Published By:

Li Yu 李雨

2008年获SM1奖学金来新加坡留学
毕业于新加坡国立大学,此后进入保险行业,至今已逾7年
至今已为上百个新加坡、中国大陆和台湾家庭提供私人定制的保险与财富管理方案

我的目标:从客户的角度出发,提供中立、专业、全面的保险与财务规划方案,并提供优质、持续的服务

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In compliance with the Personal Data Protection Act, Financial Alliance Pte Ltd (“FAPL”) seek your consent to collect and use your personal data (e.g. name, NRIC, contact numbers, mailing addresses, email addresses and photograph) for the purposes of and in accordance with FAPL’s Data Protection Policy, which can be found on FAPL’s website at https://fa.com.sg/data-protection-policy/.

根据《个人数据保护法》,鑫盟理财私人有限公司征求您的同意向您收集并使用您的个人信息。鑫盟理财将根据公司的个人数据保护政策所阐述的用途使用您的个人资料(例如姓名,证件号码,联系电话,邮寄地址,电邮地址和照片)。 该政策可在本公司网站上查寻,网址为 https://fa.com.sg/data-protection-policy/.

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