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中国能否在特朗普的压力下逆势而上?

特朗普的影响

在特朗普当选已经基本确定的情况下，上周五市场的焦点都集中在中国共产党政治局会议上。大家都在猜测，政治局这个由24位高级官员组成的团队，是否会宣布一项大规模的刺激计划，以应对特朗普承诺的贸易关税。

不过，周五晚间传来消息，官方表示会在未来五年提供1.4万亿美元（约合10万亿人民币）来帮助地方政府解决“隐藏”债务问题。地方政府的财政状况近年来受到地方税收和土地销售下降的影响，这笔钱将帮助缓解这个日益严重的问题。

但遗憾的是，市场对此的反应并不积极。这个刺激方案不如大家预期的那么全面，也没有直接刺激消费。官员们表示，中国希望在进一步采取行动前先了解更多未来的情况，但这一点并未能安抚投资者的情绪。

美国的务实态度

接下来的几周，特朗普会进一步调整他关于中国贸易关税和限制的言辞，预计中国市场的波动性会更大。毕竟，特朗普威胁要对中国商品加征60%的关税，这比他第一任期时的7.5%-30%的关税要高得多。而且，由于这种措施在美国国内有广泛的政治支持，再加上特朗普可以利用行政权力，这样的关税很可能会很快成为现实。

不过，特朗普作为商人的背景以及他过去的做法表明，贸易谈判中还是有回旋余地的。一个关键的考虑因素是，关税提高会导致美国的通货膨胀上升，而在市场预期美国将降息的情况下，特朗普可能会为了控制通胀而调整关税。再者，中国在这方面已经有过经验，也准备好了应对特朗普政策的“应急方案”。

中国出口不会遭遇致命打击

虽然美国的关税和贸易限制可能会短期内减少中国的贸易流量，但这些影响有可能通过产业链回流来得到一定程度的缓解。而且，随着中国在新能源领域（如电动车、EV电池、太阳能板）的制造能力不断提升，中国的出口有望出现自然增长。

此外，像拼多多、Shein和阿里巴巴这样的中国电商公司走向全球，也帮助中国减少了对美国市场的依赖。目前，美国已逐步被东盟和欧盟取代，成为中国的主要贸易伙伴。

虽然短期内出口下降可能会影响中国的GDP增长，但具体影响程度取决于中国国内政策是否能够提供足够的经济支撑。我们注意到，今年以来零售销售增长一直在放缓，说明尽管政府出台了一些刺激措施，但整体消费需求尚未得到显著改善。

不过，我们不认为中国会重蹈日本的覆辙。中国和日本经济形势有很大不同，中国在制造业、成本竞争力和货币控制方面，比日本十年前更有优势。

中国政治心态的变化

我们认为，中国的政治立场也发生了变化。领导人显然不再愿意继续容忍经济下行和房地产市场疲软的后果。因此，他们展现出了更强的决心来稳定经济，尤其是在特朗普可能提高关税威胁的背景下。

因此，从中期来看，我们认为中国经济有能力应对与美国的贸易战，而且市场情绪最终会回暖。虽然最近股市有了一定的反弹，但中国市场的估值仍然相对吸引，按市盈率和市净率等财务指标来看，仍低于历史均值。目前市场可能低估了中国可用的货币政策工具和结构性机会，也高估了美国完全实施保护主义政策的可能性，因此未来可能会有积极的惊喜。

尤其是，2025年我们预计中国会出台有利于消费和房地产行业的政策，同时继续推动创新和高科技制造业的发展。

Important: The information and opinions in this article are for general information purposes only. They should not be relied on as professional financial advice. Readers should seek unbiased financial advice that is customised to their specific financial objectives, situations & needs. This advertisement or publication has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

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Li Wenjun Olivia 李文君

您好，我是 Olivia 李文君。2008 年以全额奖学金来到新加坡，并在本地最大公立医院 ICU 工作了 7 年。长期在高压与高度负责的环境中，练就了我的决策力，同时我深刻理解了风险、稳定与财务安全的重要性。也正因如此，我选择进入理财行业，希望能把“在问题发生后抢救”，变成“提前帮家庭避开问题”。医学背景带给我的，是对新加坡医疗体系的深度理解，对不同客户适合的医疗机构，专家以及治疗的专业严谨判断力，也是一种对每一个家庭都必须认真负责的态度。

进入理财行业后，我专注于 风险管理、保障架构、跨境家庭资产配置，并把医学时期的逻辑思维延伸到财富规划中。作为 金融顾问（FA），我不受任何单一公司限制，可从 150+ 金融机构 的方案中做深度比较，为客户搭建透明、可执行、长期可坚持的规划结构。我服务的客户多为在新加坡发展的专业人士、新移民家庭，以及需要更高精准度规划的企业主与高净值人士。他们的共同点是：不喜欢被推销，而需要一个站在他们立场、判断清晰、长期可靠的顾问。

我也在视频号、小红书、Instagram、YouTube（账号：奥莉私房话）长期分享新加坡的保障体系、财富规划逻辑与实用案例，希望让更多家庭在重要决策上少走弯路、拥有更高的确定性。如果您正在寻找一位专业稳健、真诚可靠、可以长期合作的顾问，我很愿意从一次轻松的交流开始，帮助您和家人建立一个更安心、更有方向的未来。

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In compliance with the Personal Data Protection Act, Financial Alliance Pte Ltd (“FAPL”) seek your consent to collect and use your personal data (e.g. name, NRIC, contact numbers, mailing addresses, email addresses and photograph) for the purposes of and in accordance with FAPL’s Data Protection Policy, which can be found on FAPL’s website at https://fa.com.sg/data-protection-policy/.

根据《个人数据保护法》，鑫盟理财私人有限公司征求您的同意向您收集并使用您的个人信息。鑫盟理财将根据公司的个人数据保护政策所阐述的用途使用您的个人资料（例如姓名，证件号码，联系电话，邮寄地址，电邮地址和照片）。 该政策可在本公司网站上查寻，网址为 https://fa.com.sg/data-protection-policy/.

By submitting this form, you are deemed to have read and understood FAPL’s Personal Data Policy.

提交此表格，即表示您已阅读并理解鑫盟理财私人有限公司的个人数据政策