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美联储降息对亚洲房地产信托基金的影响

美联储即将开始降息，主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示：“是时候调整政策了。” 我们研究认为，美联储很可能会在9月中旬的会议上进行首次降息，并预计到2025年底之前会有4到6次降息。

随着未来几个月利率下降的预期，新加坡最新的6个月国库券收益率已降至3.13%，这是自2022年9月以来的最低水平。但并不是所有资产都在下跌。房地产投资信托（REITs）被广泛认为是降息的受益者，亚洲REITs在美联储降息前，8月份已经上涨了5.6%。

  • 一般来说，降息对房地产投资信托基金（REITs）有什么影响？

降息以及随之而来的市场流动性增加，可能有助于降低业务成本，特别是融资成本，这一直是REITs收益的负担。由于REITs的结构，相比其他商业模式，它们的杠杆率更高。其他条件相同的情况下，较低的融资成本应该能提升REITs的利润和分红增长。

借贷成本降低后，有些REITs可能会更倾向于通过收购来扩展资产组合。那些财务状况良好的REITs，尤其有能力通过更具收益性的方式收购物业。

另外，随着利率下降，资本化率（cap rates）受到下行压力，REITs也有望从潜在的物业资产增值中受益。随着大多数央行转向降息，物业资产价值应该会趋于稳定。

  •  预计未来两年亚洲REITs的平均股息收益率是多少？

我们预计亚洲REITs的股息收益率会在3%到6%之间，具体取决于REIT在哪个市场上市。不过，平均来看，未来两年亚洲REITs的收益率应该在4.5%左右。

  • 资本增值的潜力有多大？

我们预计亚洲REITs的总回报（包括股息收益）有望达到15%。这个预期基于REIT行业回归其平均市净率估值的假设，同时美联储降息100个基点，且美国经济实现软着陆。

  • 是否预计不同的亚洲REITs市场在面对亚洲利率下调时会有明显差异？

我们预计各个亚洲REITs市场的表现会有分化。虽然亚洲央行在未来12-24个月内有降息的空间，但每个国家的具体情况可能会影响降息的时机和幅度。

像香港这样的国家，由于HIBOR（香港银行同业拆息）与美元和美国利率政策的密切关联，可能会更快从降息中受益。短期内，香港REITs可能表现优于其他市场，但由于本地市场的需求和供应仍然疲弱，潜在的上涨空间可能有限。

另一方面，澳大利亚和新加坡的房地产基本面较强，但从美国首次降息到本地利率开始明显下降，可能会有一定的时间滞后。澳大利亚正面临更顽固的通胀，而新加坡的经济增长表现依然不错。

相比之下，日本现在处于加息周期，因为日本央行（BOJ）最近退出了负利率政策（NIRP）。市场普遍预期，日本央行在接下来的几个月里会继续收紧货币政策。虽然加息通常对REITs不利，但如果利率逐步上升，伴随着温和的通胀和健康的经济增长，反而有利于REITs的租金收入增长。因此，我们认为日本的REIT市场可能正在进入一个“良性循环”。

  •  哪些REITs板块受益最大/最小？

总体而言，降息对REITs是有利的，但具体受益程度还取决于每个REIT的股价驱动因素。

从行业角度看，我们认为办公类REITs将在降息中受益最大。全球范围内，办公类REITs受到利率上升的冲击最大，主要是因为灵活办公安排带来的结构性变化。这导致办公楼的平均入住率下降，特别是在美国等一些市场，办公空间出现了过剩。因此，过去18到24个月里，办公楼资产的价值贬损比其他商业地产资产更严重。随着高利率带来的阻力减弱、资产价值稳定下来，办公类REITs将获益最大。

有关于更多Reits 投资的策略与咨询，请联系Olivia 李文君，不要错过这个投资的好机会哦！ 微信： NU24102. WA: +65 96879885

（数据来源：S&P Global，截至2024年8月31日，基于S&P亚太REIT指数）

Important: The information and opinions in this article are for general information purposes only. They should not be relied on as professional financial advice. Readers should seek unbiased financial advice that is customised to their specific financial objectives, situations & needs. This advertisement or publication has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

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Li Wenjun Olivia 李文君

您好，我是 Olivia 李文君。2008 年以全额奖学金来到新加坡，并在本地最大公立医院 ICU 工作了 7 年。长期在高压与高度负责的环境中，练就了我的决策力，同时我深刻理解了风险、稳定与财务安全的重要性。也正因如此，我选择进入理财行业，希望能把“在问题发生后抢救”，变成“提前帮家庭避开问题”。医学背景带给我的，是对新加坡医疗体系的深度理解，对不同客户适合的医疗机构，专家以及治疗的专业严谨判断力，也是一种对每一个家庭都必须认真负责的态度。

进入理财行业后，我专注于 风险管理、保障架构、跨境家庭资产配置，并把医学时期的逻辑思维延伸到财富规划中。作为 金融顾问（FA），我不受任何单一公司限制，可从 150+ 金融机构 的方案中做深度比较，为客户搭建透明、可执行、长期可坚持的规划结构。我服务的客户多为在新加坡发展的专业人士、新移民家庭，以及需要更高精准度规划的企业主与高净值人士。他们的共同点是：不喜欢被推销，而需要一个站在他们立场、判断清晰、长期可靠的顾问。

我也在视频号、小红书、Instagram、YouTube（账号：奥莉私房话）长期分享新加坡的保障体系、财富规划逻辑与实用案例，希望让更多家庭在重要决策上少走弯路、拥有更高的确定性。如果您正在寻找一位专业稳健、真诚可靠、可以长期合作的顾问，我很愿意从一次轻松的交流开始，帮助您和家人建立一个更安心、更有方向的未来。

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