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2024年投资者必须知道的6件事情

  1. 大规模降息在没有美国衰退的情况下不太可能 根据市场的期望，自12月以来标普500指数上涨，预计美联储今年将进行150个基点的降息。然而，我们认为在没有美国经济衰退的情况下，不太可能出现明显的政策宽松。我们预计美国在接下来的6到12个月内将进入一次轻微的经济衰退，企业盈利增长疲软可能会在中期内推动美国股市下行。相对而言，2023年表现不佳的新兴市场可能提供更有吸引力的投资机会。
  2. 新兴市场具有更好的估值 我们预计经济衰退将主要集中在发达市场，这些市场的利率上涨最多。尽管增长放缓，新兴市场仍有望表现较好。考虑到美国市场目前以19.6倍的12个月前瞻性收益交易，亚洲股市以12.2倍的估值提供了更好的价值。我们的看法是，由于大多数基金目前在亚洲仓位较低，增加投资可能推动和放大股市回报。
  3. 印度股市有望迎来第9个年度涨幅 预计印度将在2024年为亚洲经济增长贡献15%的份额，位居第二。印度经济的强劲基本面、正在进行的结构性改革以及供应链收益可能会继续吸引外国投资者。尽管2024年印度即将进行选举可能会增加市场波动，但这也为投资者提供了在更有吸引力的估值水平增加仓位的机会。我们看好金融、零售、汽车、基础设施和一些消费导向的行业。
  4. 日本央行有望实现正常化 虽然日本央行在1月份保持了其货币政策不变，但预计该央行将在2024年逐渐退出其负利率政策和收益曲线控制框架。正在进行的FY24顺春季工资谈判表明工资增长动力进一步增强，这是实现自我持续通货膨胀的关键之一。我们预计日本股市将继续受到公司治理改革和ROE改善的推动。 我们的看法：在2023年日本股市的反弹之后，更加注重估值和盈利的股票选择将变得更为重要。
  5. 债券再次成为多元化资产 尽管自12月12日以来美国10年期国债收益率上涨了20个基点，但相对于历史水平，收益率仍然较高，这使得债券再次成为投资组合的多元化资产。考虑到我们的基本情景是美国经济衰退，即使股市表现不佳，债券也可以提升投资组合回报。 我们的看法：鉴于经济增长放缓，我们更喜欢在美国和亚洲选择高质量的债券。
  6.   2024年将有76个国家举行选举  这一创纪录的名单包括世界上人口最多的十个国家中的八个：孟加拉国、巴西、印度、印度尼西亚、墨西哥、巴基斯坦、俄罗斯和美国。历史上，选举可能带来一些市场波动，尽管经济基本面应该是中期的主要推动因素。然而，投资者不应过于自满。 我们的看法：多元化投资组合，包括低波动性解决方案的动态资产配置，可以帮助投资者在2024年处理由选举引发的市场波动

Important: The information and opinions in this article are for general information purposes only. They should not be relied on as professional financial advice. Readers should seek independent financial advice that is customised to their specific financial objectives, situations & needs. This advertisement or publication has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

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Li Wenjun Olivia 李文君

非常荣幸，您来到我的个人网页。我是Olivia 李文君。2008年来到新加坡做为一个全额奖学金的学生，在新加坡最大公立医院ICU工作7年后，转行理财行业。入行之后我不断的去提升自己，结合自己的医疗背景，为客户转移潜在风险，精准配置。并且帮助客户做财务增值规划，让未来不确定的人生中有一份安心。非常尽心尽力的去服务我的每一位客户，不论您是刚毕业的年轻人，还是身价上亿的老总。希望我可以成为您在新加坡理财规划中的一个值得信赖的资源人士，为您货比三家，优中选优，在超过150家金融合作伙伴的产品中，配置最适合您的理财规划方案。

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In compliance with the Personal Data Protection Act, Financial Alliance Pte Ltd (“FAPL”) seek your consent to collect and use your personal data (e.g. name, NRIC, contact numbers, mailing addresses, email addresses and photograph) for the purposes of and in accordance with FAPL’s Data Protection Policy, which can be found on FAPL’s website at https://fa.com.sg/data-protection-policy/.

根据《个人数据保护法》，鑫盟理财私人有限公司征求您的同意向您收集并使用您的个人信息。鑫盟理财将根据公司的个人数据保护政策所阐述的用途使用您的个人资料（例如姓名，证件号码，联系电话，邮寄地址，电邮地址和照片）。 该政策可在本公司网站上查寻，网址为 https://fa.com.sg/data-protection-policy/.

By submitting this form, you are deemed to have read and understood FAPL’s Personal Data Policy.

提交此表格，即表示您已阅读并理解鑫盟理财私人有限公司的个人数据政策