AI可以给投资者带来超额回报吗?

最近两年,如果说最火的话题是AI,应该大家都不会有争议吧!从Chat GPT的上线开始,一大批以人工智能为中心的产业异常火热。

人们对人工智能工具产生超额回报的潜力越来越感兴趣。今天将以五个小课题来讨论一些关于人工智能对投资者可以(或不可以)做些什么的神话和假设。

第一课:是的,人工智能确实能够提供价值

有几项美国学术研究调查了人工智能是否能够击败市场,结果似乎参差不齐。然而,通过跟踪我们的AI增强基金的表现五年,我们可以说,AI的案例是令人信服的。

我们的经验是,我们的AI增强技术在亚洲等市场特别适用,因为这些市场中存在大量未受到研究的股票,宏观经济条件也非常多样化。我们的两只亚洲股票基金全面应用我们的AI增强技术,目前均获得了晨星的最高5星评级。在2023年,这两只基金的业绩都超过了各自的基准6-8%。

第二课:矛盾地,人类是人工智能的关键

当讨论由人工智能驱动的投资时,许多投资者担心人工智能将完全取代人类智慧,投资管理决策将完全由机器制定。然而,我们的经验是,有效地平衡人类和人工智能是为我们的基金带来最多阿尔法的关键。

这是因为,一方面,由人工智能驱动的股票选择有助于克服人类偏见,这些偏见可能会导致某些公司、部门或市场被忽视。另一方面,人类对于防止持有不良资产、避免人工智能变成“黑匣子”至关重要。我们确保所有基于人工智能的股票选择在纳入我们的投资组合之前都经过人类分析师的验证。

第三课:人工智能并不意味着无敌

我们注意到,期望人工智能增强技术每个月都能交出强劲的正收益是不现实的。当然,我们的AI增强基金有时会表现不如各自的基准。然而,我们观察到,这些基金往往比市场表现更频繁地表现出色。此外,平均而言,超额收益的大小往往大于表现不佳的大小。

这是因为,为了确保最大限度的阿尔法,我们的模型旨在寻找最大的机会,而不仅仅是超额收益。这些股票选择是独立于任何资产配置考虑的,并占据了基金超额收益的90%以上。

第四课:AI增强基金的波动性更低,而不是更高

人们经常认为,由于AI增强基金能够提供更高的回报,因此它们风险更高。然而,我们并未发现这种情况。与传统的线性回报预测方法不同,我们基于人工智能的非线性预测并不追求特定的假设。相反,我们使用一种模式识别技术,这意味着我们的模型不太可能被一次性事件或不重要的市场噪音所影响。

这有助于提高我们在预测股票调整和反弹时的准确性。因此,我们的AI增强基金往往显示出比各自的基准或同行业平均水平更低的波动性。

第五课:技术只是故事的一部分

人们经常说,使用AI进行主动投资管理是一种自我毁灭的行为。像大多数技术一样,AI模型最终将被其他专业投资者复制并普及化。因此,它们提供的回报优势仅仅是暂时的。

在我们看来,支撑我们AI增强策略的技术和AI模型不如围绕它们的投资流程重要。有数百种开源AI模型可供免费使用,还有更多需要付费的。然而,这些模型成功击败市场的能力仍然相对有限,远非普遍存在。

在我们的情况下,诸如管理支持、创新文化、组织结构以及长期不断的流程改进等因素使我们取得了今天的成就。与所有有价值的活动一样,实践才能致完美。

Important: The information and opinions in this article are for general information purposes only. They should not be relied on as professional financial advice. Readers should seek independent financial advice that is customised to their specific financial objectives, situations & needs. This advertisement or publication has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

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Li Wenjun Olivia 李文君

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根据《个人数据保护法》,鑫盟理财私人有限公司征求您的同意向您收集并使用您的个人信息。鑫盟理财将根据公司的个人数据保护政策所阐述的用途使用您的个人资料(例如姓名,证件号码,联系电话,邮寄地址,电邮地址和照片)。 该政策可在本公司网站上查寻,网址为 https://fa.com.sg/data-protection-policy/.

By submitting this form, you are deemed to have read and understood FAPL’s Personal Data Policy.

提交此表格,即表示您已阅读并理解鑫盟理财私人有限公司的个人数据政策