新加坡公积金利息破4%,理财目标多高才合理?


感谢来到i理财频道, 进入主题前,我们先做一个免责声明:本节目所分享的内容只是知识性的分享,不能当作投资建议。

公积金的利息是浮动的,有可能涨,也有可能跌。

最近新加坡中央公积金局和建屋发展局发表联合文告说,政府10年期债券过去12个月的平均收益有所增加,促使特别和保健储蓄户头的挂钩利率高于4%的保底利率,因此,特别和保健储蓄户头的存款利率在今年7月到9月间,将调高到4.01%

不过,普通户头的挂钩利率仍低于2.5%的保底利率,因此,普通户头存款的最低年利率将维持在2.5%。退休户头的最低年利率也维持在4%。

建屋局同期的优惠房屋贷款年利率维持在2.6%

新加坡公积金的利息并不是一成不变的,虽然在过去很长一段时间,公积金的利息都没有变化,但是公积金每个季度都会公布下个季度的利息的情况。过去多年以来,一贯的情况就是每次都会宣布下个季度的利息不变。但这一次不同了,公布第三个季度的利息为4.01%,利息涨了0.01%。我们知道,公积金局的利率制定的政策,通常都不会受到短期利率走势的影响的,它一定要看长期,才能决定给公积金会员多少利息。从这次涨了0.01%的幅度虽然非常小,但是具有象征性的意义,也就是说,公积金局也认为接下来利率水平可能长期会保持在一个相对高位,可能接下来几年都有可能维持在2-4%之间。

细心的朋友可能已经发现,退休户头RA也属于SMRA,为什么还是4%,而不是4.01%呢。这里有一点微小的差别,这三个户头虽然利息挂钩的方式是一样的(都是是取10年期国债收益率在过去12个月的平均值,再加上1个百分点,并设置4%的保底利息),但是调整的频率是不一样的,特别和保健两个户头是按季度调整,而退休户头是按年调整的,退休户头的利息去年底就已经宣布了,当时的计算利息是3.47%,所以2023年全年适用4%保底利息。当然看现在的情形,2024年退休账户的利息几乎铁定要突破4%了。

根据目前市场利率走势,7月份美联储有可能还会再加0.25%,下半年晚些时候开启降息,但是预计降息的节奏不会太快,加上公积金利息计算方式本身就有点滞后,所以接下来两年左右时间,公积金利息超过4%将是常态。

公积金的优势
公积金是一个非常好的理财工具,它提供给我们安全无风险的收益,而且这个收益是比市场上的Risk free的利率要高的,目前新加坡定期存款一年期的利率是3点多,而公积金的特殊账户和保健储蓄账户的利息是4.01%。在这次美联储加息之前,从上一次的金融危机,2008年之后到2021年之前,新加坡的存款利息是非常低的,这个相当长的阶段,新加坡的银行一年期存款也就是1点多的水平,而同一时期的公积金的存款利息可以达到4%,这是一个非常好的收益了。

公积金的劣势

当然公积金也有一些劣势,首先是有额度限制的,如果您的特别账户已经达到19万9千,您想存也存不进去了,公积金的钱被投资在政府债券,长期而言政府债券收益并不高,所以4%的保底利息意味着新加坡政府要补贴CPF利息,所以就会限制每个人的账户顶限。另外是流动性的问题,一旦存入特别账户,55岁之前就拿不出来了。当然如果是不需要这个流动性的话,存在特殊账户是没问题的,而且还可以将在OA普通账户里的钱转到特殊账户,或者比普通账户更高的利息。但是对于自己还不确定将来会不会用到这笔钱,那还是放在OAl账户比较好,毕竟OA账户的钱相对有一定的流动性,比如买房就可以用普通账户的钱。当然,也可以考虑将普通账户的钱投资在i理财公积金投资组合中,i理财的组合不仅有现金投资的选项,也可以用SRS退休辅助账户和公积金账户中的钱来投资。当然投资有风险,大家一定要对风险有充分的认识。

接下来我们谈谈除了公积金之外,在新加坡还有什么投资方式是比较稳健的?

最重要的是我们要有一个合理的预期和目标。假如我们年复一年地把钱放在银行存款,或者其他一些收益率4%以下的表面上看起来很安全的产品,这样做真的是安全的吗?对我们的家庭财务来说意义大吗?我们还不如把钱直接填充到公积金就好,不是吗?

所以,对新加坡公民或者PR家庭来说,公积金以外的投资,隐含的收益率目标就是:要在4%以上!要知道公积金的保底4%利息对我们是无风险的(政府在替我们承担风险),如果我们自己投资,多少总是要直接面对风险的,那么对回报的要求自然也要提高。理财是一个长期的过程,只要两个百分点的年收益率的差别,日积月累下来对一个家庭的最终收益会产生很大的不同。假如一对夫妇35岁左右拿10万新币来投资,按4%的收益率,到55岁(也就是20年后)变成22万,累计收益只有12万。要是每年多赚两个点,收益增加到22万,相对4%的情况多赚了85%。当然到65岁的时候差别就更大,相对4%的情况多赚了111%,所以这个差异还是非常大的,对于这个家庭的财务状况,能不能提前退休,有很大的影响。

 

 

当然如果要达到6%以上,依靠存款和债券是不够的,我们的投资资产,里面要有权益类产品,比如股票才行,或者房子。不过眼下房子新加坡很贵,REITs估值相对合理些,预期长期收益率6%以上,我们以前的节目也曾介绍过这个品种。

另外股债均衡配置也是稳健的选择,股票实现增长,而债券提供现金收益,同时对冲股市风险,他们是一对完美的搭配。

上面我们举了两个例子,其实还有很多,具体怎么样配置,还是要看家庭的情况,包括投资偏好,流动性需求等等,时间关系这里我们不展开讲。欢迎有兴趣的朋友向i理财咨询。

 

Important: The information and opinions in this article are for general information purposes only. They should not be relied on as professional financial advice. Readers should seek independent financial advice that is customised to their specific financial objectives, situations & needs. This advertisement or publication has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

Published By:

Yu Xiaopeng Shelby 虞肖鹏

MAS REP No.: YX-300551896

FINANCIAL ADVISORY MANAGER

独立理财顾问

《i理财》频道/视频号/公众号/Youtube

微信号:shelby_yu

新加坡投资.理财.保险.信托等全球资产配置, 一站式,专业,独立。

 

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