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似曾相识：从.com泡沫看今日AI热潮

还记得那个世纪末的狂欢吗？1996年到2000年初，科技股如火箭般蹿升，纳斯达克指数在五年间上涨超过300%。那时，任何一个公司只要在名字里加上“.com”，股价就能一飞冲天。投资者们追逐着一个个尚未盈利的互联网概念，仿佛找到了通往新世界的金钥匙。可惜，当盛宴散场，潮水退去，当市场意识到许多公司的商业模式根本无法支撑其估值时，泡沫破裂：到2002年，纳斯达克指数从高点回撤近80%，无数梦想与财富随风消散。
dot com bubble
(图片来源：雅虎财经）

如今，站在2025年的节点上，我们似乎看到了似成相识的场景：人工智能领域正上演着类似的狂热：美股“七巨头”（Meta、苹果、亚马逊、谷歌、微软、特斯拉及英伟达）股价屡创新高，与此同时都频频出手继续加码在AI领域加大投资力度，Anthropic获得巨额投资……AI概念股被持续热炒，很难不让人想起二十多年前发生过的事情。

不过，这次的故事确实是不太一样。

与互联网泡沫时期那些烧钱换增长的公司不同，今天的科技巨头们拥有实实在在的盈利能力、稳健的现金流和健康的资产负债表。贝莱德的分析指出，当前AI投资更多来自企业自身的保留盈余，而非高杠杆借贷——这就像是用自己的积蓄创业，而不是借钱赌博，抗风险能力自然强得多。所以，理论上来说，即便是他们的投资回报不好，也不应该给市场带来太多负面冲击。套句玩笑话：“不坑穷人”。

但市场仍有理由保持警觉。那些“闭环交易”确实巧妙：云服务商投资AI公司，AI公司反过来购买投资方的云服务。这种循环如同两个朋友互相请客吃饭，账单在彼此间流转，但总要有人最终买单。当Anthropic承诺从微软购买300亿美元的计算服务时，我们不得不思考：这种相互滋养的模式，能否真正创造出可持续的价值？

谷歌母公司Alphabet Inc兼谷歌首席执行官皮查伊(Sundar Pichai)接受英国广播公司(BBC)专访时说得很坦诚：“当前AI投资热潮中确实存在非理性成分。如果泡沫破裂，没有任何一家公司能独善其身。“

法国外贸银行的吴卓殷也发出了类似的提醒：“如果企业盈利跟不上估值的脚步，科技股估值将见顶。”

有句老话说得好：“历史从不简单重复，但总会押着相似的韵脚“。互联网泡沫教会我们，技术创新需要时间沉淀，真正的价值需要经过商业模式的考验。今天的AI确实有着更坚实的基本面——强劲的需求、成熟的技术、充足的资金支持。让我们拭目以待，看这些巨额投资能否结出实实在在的果实。

但，从投资的角度来说，在这个AI的“狂飙年代”，我们不妨保持一份审慎。既不错过技术革命带来的机遇，也不忘记历史给予的智慧。毕竟，最好的故事，往往是那些既拥抱未来，又不忘过去的人书写的。

Will本身是一名价值投资的践行者，在投资方面有自己的看法，主张不盲目跟风，多听多看，伺机而动。
如果您对于投资理财这个话题有什么疑问，或者您想要听听Will关于当前市场的判断，欢迎你直接联系Will获得最适合您的建议。

#新加坡投资 #AI投资 #投资理财

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Will刘飞

微信：Will_Liu / WhatsApp：96670185

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Important: The information and opinions in this article are for general information purposes only. They should not be relied on as professional financial advice. Readers should seek unbiased financial advice that is customised to their specific financial objectives, situations & needs. This advertisement or publication has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

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Will Liu

非常荣幸，欢迎您来到我的个人网页。
我是Will-刘飞。2005年从华中科技大学（HUST）毕业后，我来到新加坡发展，先后在IT行业担任大客户经理超过十年。

经历多年的职场历练后，我不仅在技术和业绩上不断成长，也在工作之余逐渐对理财产生了浓厚兴趣。利用业余时间，我刻苦钻研相关知识，并在新加坡管理大学（SMU)获得了实用经济学硕士学位（Applied Economics）。在SMU深造的那段时间里，我两个可爱的女儿先后出生，她们的到来让我倍感幸福、也更加深刻的体会到家庭财务规划的重要性。在获得理论知识的支持后，我在个人生活中坚持实践，逐步实现了有车有房，稳定成长的小目标；女儿们也都顺利考入了新加坡的知名中学。

我真诚希望能凭借所学，帮助更多人实现财务安心。因此，我选择投身金融理财行业，把帮助客户规划稳健的未来作为自己新的职业目标。入行以来，我不断学习与成长，结合自己在软件行业多年积累的经验与数据分析能力，为客户量身定制财务规划方案，帮助他们有效分散风险，让生活在不确定的时代中能够多一份安心。

无论您是刚踏入职场的年轻人，还是事业有成的企业家，我都希望成为您在新加坡值得信赖与依靠的理财伙伴。凭借超过150家金融机构的合作资源，我将为您精挑细选，找到最契合您需求的理财方案。

欢迎随时与我联系，让我们一起为您的财务未来打造更稳固的基础。

如果您还没有跟我取得联系，请添加微信(Wechat)“Will_Liu”或点击这里联系我！

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根据《个人数据保护法》，鑫盟理财私人有限公司征求您的同意向您收集并使用您的个人信息。鑫盟理财将根据公司的个人数据保护政策所阐述的用途使用您的个人资料（例如姓名，证件号码，联系电话，邮寄地址，电邮地址和照片）。 该政策可在本公司网站上查寻，网址为 https://fa.com.sg/data-protection-policy/.

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  • Financial Alliance Pte Ltd ( “FAPL”) is licensed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (“MAS”) and allowed to conduct financial advisory activities in accordance with the Financial Advisers Act (Cap. 110) (“FAA”) and the Securities & Futures Act (Cap. 289) (“SFA”) within the jurisdiction of the Republic of Singapore and in accordance with the licenses granted by MAS
  • 鑫盟理财私人有限公司( “鑫盟理财”)持有由新加坡金融管理局(“MAS”)所颁发的牌照，并许可在新加坡共和国境内依据财务顾问法（第110章）和证券与期货交易法（第289章）进行财务咨询等相关业务
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In compliance with the Personal Data Protection Act, Financial Alliance Pte Ltd (“FAPL”) seek your consent to collect and use your personal data (e.g. name, NRIC, contact numbers, mailing addresses, email addresses and photograph) for the purposes of and in accordance with FAPL’s Data Protection Policy, which can be found on FAPL’s website at https://fa.com.sg/data-protection-policy/.

根据《个人数据保护法》，鑫盟理财私人有限公司征求您的同意向您收集并使用您的个人信息。鑫盟理财将根据公司的个人数据保护政策所阐述的用途使用您的个人资料（例如姓名，证件号码，联系电话，邮寄地址，电邮地址和照片）。 该政策可在本公司网站上查寻，网址为 https://fa.com.sg/data-protection-policy/.

By submitting this form, you are deemed to have read and understood FAPL’s Personal Data Policy.

提交此表格，即表示您已阅读并理解鑫盟理财私人有限公司的个人数据政策