View My Profile
冷静看待DBS乐观预测

关于新展银行DBS预测新加坡房价的一点思考

DBS预测新加坡房价每方尺4000块的时间框架

DBS预测到2040年，新加坡私宅的平均价格每平方英尺可能会突破4000元。这是DBS集团股票分析师在最近发布的报告中提出的长期预测，预测时间跨度为15年（从现在起到2040年）。

预测的核心要点

**价格增长幅度**：按照目前的平均尺价（2025年首三季度的中位数为2139元），DBS预测的4000元将相当于目前平均价格的约两倍。

**增长率**：DBS预测私宅价格将以**2%至3%的长期复合年增长率（CAGR）增长**。根据DBS分析，基于现有住房政策假设未来住房面积保持稳定，整体私宅的平均尺价会达到**3500元至4050元的范围**。

预测的支持因素

DBS集团房地产研究部指出，支撑这一预测的主要因素包括：

1. **稳定的经济增长**：新加坡经济基本面稳固

2. **人口增长**：人口持续增加，到2030年目标为6.9百万人

3. **政府政策支持**：约97%的住房由新加坡公民购买，确保市场需求稳定；政府也鼓励永久居民融入社会，住房是其长期扎根的主要条件

4. **住房需求**：未来10至15年内将新增130,000个住房单位，而DBS预测到2040年可能需要建造近200,000至300,000个住房单位

5. **基础设施发展**：政府推出的多项振兴乌节区和滨海湾区的措施，以及大型基础建设项目

市场现状与可能的变数

截至2025年第三季度，整体非有地私宅的尺价中位数为2139元。其中，新私宅、转售私宅和楼花转售私宅的中位数分别为2490元、1741元和2092元。

值得注意的是，DBS分析师强调，这一长期预测依赖于三大关键因素的持续支持：**人口增长、经济增长和稳定治理**。一旦任何一个因素转弱，就会影响楼市前景，导致房价回调。他们特别指出，稳定和贯彻政策的政府是支撑楼市的最重要支柱，因为新加坡的楼市与政府政策、规划和监管密切相关。

DBS预测中最脆弱的部分：

根据新加坡人口白皮书，到2030年的人口目标是大约700万人，而按照目前的人口自然出生率，在移民政策没有大范围放开的前提下已经可以达到目标。而从2030年到2040年还有10年，首先人口增长这个因素就会变弱。

1.人口政策反转风险：如果2030年后政府收紧移民政策而不是放开，人口增长将会变弱

2.人口红利枯竭：老龄化加重会削弱经济增速，进而抑制收入增长和购房需求

3.供应过剩风险：如果政府加大住房供应以应对可负担性问题，大量的新房（包括HDB与Condo）可能超过实际需求，压低价格

4.市场饱和风险：如果房价涨幅过大，购买力被侵蚀，实际有效需求可能低于预期

本文的观点判断

DBS的4000元预测靠谱程度：60-70%

该预测有一定的合理性，但建立在多个中等强度的假设之上。人口增长放缓将是影响其预测成真的真实问题。当然新的家庭的建立、年轻人收入的增长和可能会出台的供应约束都对房价的上涨有一定的促进作用——这个逻辑有可信度，但对于预测来说，不确定性也是非常高的。

如果您是投资者或决策者，建议将这个预测视为乐观场景而非基础情景。如果您看来这篇文章，觉得上面所说的分析有道理的话，可以参考更保守的估计：2040年房价在3200-3500元之间（年均增长1.5%-2%），而可能达不到2%至3%的增长。

 

欢迎您参考我整理的其他一些文章资讯，更欢迎你直接联系Will获得最适合您的建议。

#新加坡CPF #新加坡退休规划 #新加坡终身入息计划 #CPF Life #投资 #年金

您的全方位理财伙伴

Will Liu Fei

微信：Will_Liu / WhatsApp：96670185

新加坡全牌照理财顾问

Representing Financial Alliance Pte Ltd

Singapore Most Progressive Financial Adviser

Important: The information and opinions in this article are for general information purposes only. They should not be relied on as professional financial advice. Readers should seek unbiased financial advice that is customised to their specific financial objectives, situations & needs. This advertisement or publication has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

Published By:

Will Liu Fei

非常荣幸，欢迎您来到刘飞的个人网页。
我是Will Liu Fei。2005年从华中科技大学（HUST）毕业后，我来到新加坡发展，先后在IT行业担任大客户经理超过十年。

经历多年的职场历练后，我不仅在技术和业绩上不断成长，也在工作之余逐渐对理财产生了浓厚兴趣。利用业余时间，我刻苦钻研相关知识，并在新加坡管理大学（SMU)获得了实用经济学硕士学位（Applied Economics）。在SMU深造的那段时间里，我两个可爱的女儿先后出生，她们的到来让我倍感幸福、也更加深刻的体会到家庭财务规划的重要性。在获得理论知识的支持后，我在个人生活中坚持实践，逐步实现了有车有房，稳定成长的小目标；女儿们也都顺利考入了新加坡的知名中学。

我真诚希望能凭借所学，帮助更多人实现财务安心。因此，我选择投身金融理财行业，把帮助客户规划稳健的未来作为自己新的职业目标。入行以来，我不断学习与成长，结合自己在软件行业多年积累的经验与数据分析能力，为客户量身定制财务规划方案，帮助他们有效分散风险，让生活在不确定的时代中能够多一份安心。

无论您是刚踏入职场的年轻人，还是事业有成的企业家，我都希望成为您在新加坡值得信赖与依靠的理财伙伴。凭借超过150家金融机构的合作资源，我将为您精挑细选，找到最契合您需求的理财方案。

欢迎随时与我联系，让我们一起为您的财务未来打造更稳固的基础。

如果您还没有跟我取得联系，请添加微信(Wechat)“Will_Liu”或点击这里联系我！

View My Profile
Contact Me

CONTACT US

  • 150 Beach Road #12-01/08, Gateway West Singapore 189720
  • +65 62221889
  • +65 62221019
  • feedback@fa.com.sg
Disclosure & Disclaimer

Privacy & Cookies Policy

Data Protection Policy

Terms of Use

Terms of Use - Mobile

Fair Dealing

Contact Me

What type of services are you looking for? 请问您需要咨询哪些方面的服务？(Please select all that applies)

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

By submitting this form, I confirm that

提交此表格，即表示

  • I have read and understood FAPL’s Personal Data Policy, and hereby give my acknowledgement and consent to FAPL to use my personal data in accordance with FAPL’s Personal Data Policy.
  • 我已阅读并理解鑫盟理财私人有限公司的个人数据保护政策，并同意鑫盟理财私人有限公司根据个人数据保护政策所阐述的用途使用我的个人资料。
  • I have read and understood the disclaimers above and hereby affirm my acceptance of these terms.
  • 我已阅读并理解了上述免责声明，特此声明接受这些条款。
  • I have not been directly contacted or approached by any representative or employee of FAPL with an offer or solicitation to apply for any financial products not offered in my home country.
  • 鑫盟理财私人有限公司的代表或员工并未直接与我联系或提出要约或招揽购买我原居住国境内所不提供的任何金融产品.
  • Financial Alliance Pte Ltd ( “FAPL”) is licensed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (“MAS”) and allowed to conduct financial advisory activities in accordance with the Financial Advisers Act (Cap. 110) (“FAA”) and the Securities & Futures Act (Cap. 289) (“SFA”) within the jurisdiction of the Republic of Singapore and in accordance with the licenses granted by MAS
  • 鑫盟理财私人有限公司( “鑫盟理财”)持有由新加坡金融管理局(“MAS”)所颁发的牌照，并许可在新加坡共和国境内依据财务顾问法（第110章）和证券与期货交易法（第289章）进行财务咨询等相关业务
  • Any services provided by FAPL to persons not ordinarily resident in Singapore are provided solely on an offshore basis from Singapore, resulting from direct enquiry on the part of the foreign residents.
  • 鑫盟理财为非新加坡居民所提供的任何服务仅限于直接向鑫盟理财发出咨询请求的国外居民。
  • As an integral part of the provision of such services, FAPL may from time to time make available to such residents, documents and information making reference to capital markets products (for example, in connection with the provision of fund management or investment advisory services outside of the foreign jurisdiction).
  • 作为提供此类服务的一部分，鑫盟理财会不时向此类咨询者提供有关产品的参考文件和信息（例如，关于海外司法管辖区以外的资金管理或投资咨询服务等信息）。
  • Such documents and information are provided by Financial Alliance Pte Ltd (“FAPL”) is for general information only and is not intended for anyone other than the recipient.
  • 此类由鑫盟理财所提供的文件和信息仅供收件人做一般信息参考。
  • It does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person.
  • 此类文件和信息不会把-个人投资目标，财务状况或其特定需求等考虑在内。
  • It does not constitute the making available of, or an offer or solicitation by FAPL to buy or sell or subscribe for any such capital markets product or to enter into a transaction or to participate in any particular trading or investment strategy nor an advice or a recommendation with respect to such financial products.
  • 鑫盟理财向该人士提供此类文件和信息将不构成要约或招揽购买或出售或认购任何此类资本市场产品，或达成交易或参与任何特定的投资策略，也不构成有关此类金融产品的建议或推荐。
  • These documents may not be published, circulated, reproduced or distributed in whole or in part to any other person without FAPL’s prior written consent.
  • 未经鑫盟理财的事先书面同意，不得将这些文件全文或部分发布，传播，复制或分发给其他人。
  • This document is not intended for distribution to, publication or use by any person in any jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication or use would be contrary to applicable law or would subject FAPL and its related corporations, connected persons, associated persons and/or affiliates to any registration, licensing or other requirements within such jurisdiction.
  • 鑫盟理财无意在分发，出版或使用此类文件可能违反当地法律，或本公司及关联公司或关联人士需要注册，获得许可或符合规定的司法权区向当地人士分发、出版此类文件或供其使用。
  • You shall ensure that you have and will continue to be fully compliant with all applicable laws in your home country when entering into discussion or contracts with FAPL.
  • 在与鑫盟理财进行讨论或签订合约时，您应确保您已完全遵守并将继续遵守您所在原居住国的所有适用法律及条规。

In compliance with the Personal Data Protection Act, Financial Alliance Pte Ltd (“FAPL”) seek your consent to collect and use your personal data (e.g. name, NRIC, contact numbers, mailing addresses, email addresses and photograph) for the purposes of and in accordance with FAPL’s Data Protection Policy, which can be found on FAPL’s website at https://fa.com.sg/data-protection-policy/.

根据《个人数据保护法》，鑫盟理财私人有限公司征求您的同意向您收集并使用您的个人信息。鑫盟理财将根据公司的个人数据保护政策所阐述的用途使用您的个人资料（例如姓名，证件号码，联系电话，邮寄地址，电邮地址和照片）。 该政策可在本公司网站上查寻，网址为 https://fa.com.sg/data-protection-policy/.

By submitting this form, you are deemed to have read and understood FAPL’s Personal Data Policy.

提交此表格，即表示您已阅读并理解鑫盟理财私人有限公司的个人数据政策

Scan for Contact Details

Download Contact
Enquiry

Join our newsletter

Subscribe to our newsletter to receive updates on our latest content!

By providing the info below, I confirm that I am the user and/or subscriber of the telephone number(s) and email address provided by me and I consent to receive from Financial Alliance and/or its financial adviser representatives, any marketing, advertising and promotional information organise by Financial Alliance via voice calls, SMS/MMS (text messages) or faxes to my telephone number(s) provided below. I understand I may withdraw any consent I have given at any time by writing in to Financial Alliance Pte Ltd.

Scan for WeChat QR

Estate Planning

Who Gets What?
If You Don’t Have a Will.

Find Out Now

Retirement Planning

Will I be able to retire comfortably?

Find Out Now

Contact Me

What type of services are you looking for? 请问您需要咨询哪些方面的服务？(Please select all that applies)

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

By submitting this form, I confirm that

提交此表格，即表示

  • I have read and understood FAPL’s Personal Data Policy, and hereby give my acknowledgement and consent to FAPL to use my personal data in accordance with FAPL’s Personal Data Policy.
  • 我已阅读并理解鑫盟理财私人有限公司的个人数据保护政策，并同意鑫盟理财私人有限公司根据个人数据保护政策所阐述的用途使用我的个人资料。
  • I have read and understood the disclaimers above and hereby affirm my acceptance of these terms.
  • 我已阅读并理解了上述免责声明，特此声明接受这些条款。
  • I have not been directly contacted or approached by any representative or employee of FAPL with an offer or solicitation to apply for any financial products not offered in my home country.
  • 鑫盟理财私人有限公司的代表或员工并未直接与我联系或提出要约或招揽购买我原居住国境内所不提供的任何金融产品.
  • Financial Alliance Pte Ltd ( “FAPL”) is licensed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (“MAS”) and allowed to conduct financial advisory activities in accordance with the Financial Advisers Act (Cap. 110) (“FAA”) and the Securities & Futures Act (Cap. 289) (“SFA”) within the jurisdiction of the Republic of Singapore and in accordance with the licenses granted by MAS
  • 鑫盟理财私人有限公司( “鑫盟理财”)持有由新加坡金融管理局(“MAS”)所颁发的牌照，并许可在新加坡共和国境内依据财务顾问法（第110章）和证券与期货交易法（第289章）进行财务咨询等相关业务
  • Any services provided by FAPL to persons not ordinarily resident in Singapore are provided solely on an offshore basis from Singapore, resulting from direct enquiry on the part of the foreign residents.
  • 鑫盟理财为非新加坡居民所提供的任何服务仅限于直接向鑫盟理财发出咨询请求的国外居民。
  • As an integral part of the provision of such services, FAPL may from time to time make available to such residents, documents and information making reference to capital markets products (for example, in connection with the provision of fund management or investment advisory services outside of the foreign jurisdiction).
  • 作为提供此类服务的一部分，鑫盟理财会不时向此类咨询者提供有关产品的参考文件和信息（例如，关于海外司法管辖区以外的资金管理或投资咨询服务等信息）。
  • Such documents and information are provided by Financial Alliance Pte Ltd (“FAPL”) is for general information only and is not intended for anyone other than the recipient.
  • 此类由鑫盟理财所提供的文件和信息仅供收件人做一般信息参考。
  • It does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person.
  • 此类文件和信息不会把-个人投资目标，财务状况或其特定需求等考虑在内。
  • It does not constitute the making available of, or an offer or solicitation by FAPL to buy or sell or subscribe for any such capital markets product or to enter into a transaction or to participate in any particular trading or investment strategy nor an advice or a recommendation with respect to such financial products.
  • 鑫盟理财向该人士提供此类文件和信息将不构成要约或招揽购买或出售或认购任何此类资本市场产品，或达成交易或参与任何特定的投资策略，也不构成有关此类金融产品的建议或推荐。
  • These documents may not be published, circulated, reproduced or distributed in whole or in part to any other person without FAPL’s prior written consent.
  • 未经鑫盟理财的事先书面同意，不得将这些文件全文或部分发布，传播，复制或分发给其他人。
  • This document is not intended for distribution to, publication or use by any person in any jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication or use would be contrary to applicable law or would subject FAPL and its related corporations, connected persons, associated persons and/or affiliates to any registration, licensing or other requirements within such jurisdiction.
  • 鑫盟理财无意在分发，出版或使用此类文件可能违反当地法律，或本公司及关联公司或关联人士需要注册，获得许可或符合规定的司法权区向当地人士分发、出版此类文件或供其使用。
  • You shall ensure that you have and will continue to be fully compliant with all applicable laws in your home country when entering into discussion or contracts with FAPL.
  • 在与鑫盟理财进行讨论或签订合约时，您应确保您已完全遵守并将继续遵守您所在原居住国的所有适用法律及条规。

In compliance with the Personal Data Protection Act, Financial Alliance Pte Ltd (“FAPL”) seek your consent to collect and use your personal data (e.g. name, NRIC, contact numbers, mailing addresses, email addresses and photograph) for the purposes of and in accordance with FAPL’s Data Protection Policy, which can be found on FAPL’s website at https://fa.com.sg/data-protection-policy/.

根据《个人数据保护法》，鑫盟理财私人有限公司征求您的同意向您收集并使用您的个人信息。鑫盟理财将根据公司的个人数据保护政策所阐述的用途使用您的个人资料（例如姓名，证件号码，联系电话，邮寄地址，电邮地址和照片）。 该政策可在本公司网站上查寻，网址为 https://fa.com.sg/data-protection-policy/.

By submitting this form, you are deemed to have read and understood FAPL’s Personal Data Policy.

提交此表格，即表示您已阅读并理解鑫盟理财私人有限公司的个人数据政策